A clearly improving external deficit
According to the annual report of the Central Bank of Tunisia on the 2024 balance of payments, the current deficit fell significantly to reach -1.6% of GDP, or -2.6 billion dinars, compared to -2.3% of GDP in 2023 (-3.5 billion). This contraction marks a notable improvement in the country’s external position.
Services boost revenue
The performance of the services sector constitutes the main lever of this improvement. The surplus increased to +22.7 billion dinars, supported by a 9.8% increase in tourism receipts and a 12.7% increase in labor income.
This dynamism made it possible to improve the rate of coverage of the trade deficit by these revenues, rising to 57.7% in 2024 compared to 56% the previous year.
Foreign trade still under pressure
At the same time, the deficit in the balance of goods continues to weigh heavily. It worsened to reach -30.4 billion dinars, compared to -28.1 billion in 2023. This deterioration results from a 3.6% increase in imports combined with a 1% drop in exports, confirming the structural fragility of Tunisian foreign trade.
A stable dinar and protected reserves
The BCT also reports quasi-stability in the annual average exchange rate of the dinar (-0.2%) against the euro and the dollar. This development reflects, according to her, the solidity of current account indicators and has contributed to maintaining foreign currency reserves at a comfortable level.
Domestic demand drives growth
On the real economy side, domestic demand – the main driver of growth in 2024 – strengthened by 4.3% at constant prices. National consumption increased by 1.2%, driven by:
- the recovery of public consumption (+1.4%),
- the improvement in private consumption (+1.1%), favored by the easing of inflation and the rise in wages,
- investment, on the rise, also contributes to this dynamic.
A need for external financing almost eliminated
The BCT also notes a marked improvement in the financial account, whose financing need went from 1,296 MD in 2023 to only 251 MD in 2024.
This development is explained by the recovery in the balance of portfolio investments and other investments (+690 MD), despite:
- a decline in long-term external borrowing (-9.4%),
- an increase in the repayment of the principal of the external debt (+27.3%).
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