The volume of Tunisian external debt experienced a marked decline in 2024, going from 66,874 million dinars (MD) in 2023 to 62,539 MD. According to the report from the Ministry of Finance relating to the draft state budget for 2026, this trend should continue to reach 56,971 MD in 2025 then 56,486 MD in 2026.
A declining external debt, but an increasing overall debt
Despite the reduction in recourse to external debt, the total volume of public debt will continue to increase. It should reach 156,704 MD at the end of 2026, compared to 145,032 MD in 2025, an increase of 11,672 MD.
This increase is mainly explained by the financing of the budget deficit (estimated at 11,015 MD) and by the unfavorable impact of exchange rates (650 MD), specifies the report.
A slight decline in the debt/GDP ratio
As a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), state debt should represent 83.41% in 2026, compared to 84.02% in 2025 and 84.9% in 2024. This relative decline reflects a stabilization of debt in relation to the economic growth expected for the next two years.
High sensitivity to currency fluctuations
The Ministry of Finance underlines the high sensitivity of the debt to variations in the dinar. A 1% increase in the exchange rates of the main foreign currencies would lead to an increase in the volume of debt of approximately 593 MD, or 0.32% of GDP.
The external financing forecasts for 2025-2026 are based on conservative assumptions: an increase of 0.01 dinar for the dollar and the euro, and of 0.1 dinar per 1,000 Japanese yen.
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