The government anticipates a drop in debt service to 23 billion dinars next year, supported by the stability of the dinar and the decline in global rates.
The Tunisian public debt service is expected to decline by 5.8% in 2026, to stand at 23,057 million dinars, according to the joint report of the finance and budget committees of the Assembly of People’s Representatives (ARP) and the National Council of Regions and Districts (CNRD). This inflection marks a slight respite after two financial years marked by strong pressure on reimbursements.
Official projections explain this decline by a reduction in the volume of external debt, the fall in global interest rates and a stability of the Tunisian dinar, all combined factors which reduce the overall cost of the debt.
Debt still heavy despite the decline
Over the period 2024-2026, Tunisia remains faced with significant deadlines, in particular due to the repayment of several loans contracted on international financial markets:
- 850 million euros and 50 billion yen in 2024,
- 1 billion dollars in 2025,
- and 700 million euros in 2026.
The increased use of medium-term loans has also led to an accumulation of repayment deadlines, notably those of 52-week Treasury Bills (2,565 MD expected in 2026), exceptional facilities from the Central Bank and internal loans.
The main payments planned for 2026 also concern:
- the 2019 euro bond issue (700 million euros, maturing in July 2026),
- IMF tranches under the Extended Credit Facility ($234 million spread over nine installments),
- and several maturities with the African Export-Import Bank and Saudi Arabia.
Added to this are the repayments of the national bond loan (2,675 MD) and the internal foreign currency loan (1,067 MD).
Towards better control of the cost of debt
The expected drop in interest on external debt reflects a more favorable economic situation: falling global rates, stable dinar and possible revision of the key rate by the Central Bank of Tunisia.
According to the parliamentary report, these parameters give hope for a gradual control of the cost of debt, even if the structure of Tunisian debt remains fragile and highly dependent on international markets.
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