The Arab Monetary Fund (FMA) recently announced a growth forecast of around 3.2 % for Tunisia in 2025, an information which has just been relayed today by the TAP agency. This projection contrasts with the more cautious estimates of other international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank.
Contrasting prospects according to the institutions
The FMA relies on more dynamic growth, conditioned by the continuation of economic reforms, in particular in terms of financing, control of budget deficit and improving the climate of investments.
On the other hand, the IMF provides for lower growth, around 1.4 % For 2025 and 2026with still high inflation. The World Bank estimates an intermediate growth to 1.9 %carried by a limited sectoral improvement.
For its part, the African Development Bank (AfDB) anticipates growth similar to that of the World Bank, while private analysts expect more modest growth, around 1.5 %.
| Institution | Growth forecast in 2025 |
|---|---|
| Arab monetary fund (FMA) | ~ 3.2 % |
| World Bank | 1.9 % |
| African Development Bank | 1.9 % |
| Allianz Trade (private) | 1.5 % |
| IMF | 1.4 % |
The crucial importance of reforms for economic trajectory
These differences illustrate the impact of hypotheses and various approaches to institutions. The FMA shows conditional optimism to the reforms, while the IMF and the others remain cautious in the face of economic and social challenges.
The success of reforms and macroeconomic stability will determine the future trajectory of Tunisia.
