The African Development Bank (AfDB) provides for economic growth of 1.9% for Tunisia in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026, mainly carried by an expected recovery in agriculture and manufacturing industry.
These forecasts were published Thursday in a report entitled “To make the most of the capital of Tunisia to promote its development”.
Inflation should continue its decline, reaching 6.4% in 2025, then 6.1% in 2026, under the effect of a restrictive monetary policy and the decrease in global inflationary pressures.
Reduction of budget deficit, but alert to the current account
The AfDB also anticipates a gradual reduction in the budget deficit, which would drop from 5.3% of GDP in 2025 to 4.9% in 2026, thanks to better mobilization of domestic resources and efforts of budgetary consolidation.
On the other hand, the deficit of the current account should be widening, reaching 2.2% of GDP in 2025 then 3.3% in 2026, mainly due to a planned increase in imports.
A fragile and sown of risk trajectory
Despite these positive signals, the AfDB believes that Tunisian economic perspectives remain fragile, due to an uncertain international context. Trade tensions, regional geopolitical conflicts and the volatility of supply chains could affect external demand, increase import costs and weaken the competitiveness of the Tunisian economy.
In addition, there are other major risks: the volatility of raw material prices, which can revive inflationary tensions, access limited to external funding, internal budgetary tensions, a prolonged increase in interest rates on a global scale, which would increase the debt service and increase the pressure on the Dinar.
Finally, the AfDB warns against the current profile of public debt, considered risky in terms of refinancing, as well as against the vulnerability of the current account to fluctuations in energy prices and foodstuffs.
