On the occasion of “National Adaptation Plan Week”, the Ministry of Agriculture revealed new climate data that is particularly worrying for the future of the country.
Mohamed Chamseddine Harrabi, president of the sectoral climate change commission at the ministry, delivered a harsh diagnosis: without acceleration of adaptation measures, Tunisia could face, before 2050, major upheavals affecting agriculture, water resources and food security, he said in a statement given to Mosaique fm.
Worrying thermal and water projections
According to Harrabi, international climate models predict a rise in temperatures of around 2°C for Tunisia by 2050, several decades before the global increase expected in 2100.
This local acceleration in warming would be accompanied by a marked decrease in precipitation, estimated between -14 and -22 mm, directly impacting irrigated areas and the main strategic sectors, notably cereals and olive growing.
The official also warns of rising sea levels, which could threaten nearly 50% of coastal water resources, accentuating salinization, pressure on groundwater and the vulnerability of agricultural land located near the coast.
Five years of study to build a national adaptation plan
Since 2020, the ministry has been working on a series of scientific studies intended to measure the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security. The first results, deemed “alarming”, led to the development of a National Adaptation Plan financed by the Green Climate Fund and implemented with technical support from the FAO.
This plan has already made it possible to strengthen the resilience of agricultural systems, stimulate investment in vulnerable sectors, and support farmers in the most exposed rural areas.
An agricultural sector at a crossroads
For Mekki Abderrahmane, land and water manager at the FAO sub-regional office in Tunis, this week of events marks the closure of the project dedicated to the development of the adaptation strategy.
Financed for three years by the Green Climate Fund, the program is now leading to a renewed national vision, harmonized with nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and the objectives of the 2026–2030 Development Plan.
According to him, this strategy will allow the ministry to build a more resilient agriculture, capable of absorbing climatic shocks while maintaining an acceptable level of food security.
The experts gathered during the “National Adaptation Plan Week” underlined the urgency of strengthening hydraulic infrastructure, developing agricultural techniques adapted to drought, directing more funding towards food systems, and improving governance of the sector.
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