The Japanese rating agency Rating and Investment Information (R & I) revised, on August 22, 2025, the prospect of Tunisia from “negative” to “stable”, while confirming its note to B-. This decision reflects a gradual recovery of economic balances despite the lack of financial support from the IMF.
A recovery economy
In his press release, R & I believes that:
“The Tunisian economy displays tangible signs of improvement: reduction in current deficit, increase in exchange reserves and appeasement of tensions on currency liquidity”.
The growth of real GDP, which reached +1.4% in 2024, was brought by the standardization of climatic conditions and by a rebound in tourism. The agency provides for an increase between 1% and 2% in 2025, a rhythm which could be maintained in 2026 if agriculture and tourism continue on their momentum.
Budget balance under control
R&I also takes up an improvement in public finances. The budget deficit was reduced to 6% of GDP in 2024, and the government aims at 5.5% in 2025 thanks to control of public service wages and subsidies.
The public debt ratio is decreasing “moderately”, according to the agency, which underlines the government’s commitment to restore budgetary balance.
“The Tunisian economy is in the process of recovery. The current deficit has been reduced and the exchange reserves increased and the concerns concerning liquidity in foreign currencies have appealed, despite the absence of a clear prospect of obtaining financial support from the International Monetary Fund. “
Political stability and increased confidence
In addition to economic progress, R&I highlights the political stability observed after the presidential election, without major disorders, as a factor of trust. These combined elements allow the agency to reduce the prospect of “negative” to “stable” while confirming the sovereign note to B-.
Outdoor environmental dependence
If R&I judges the risks linked to “limited” American customs duties, it warns that the Tunisian economy remains strongly dependent on the European situation, the main destination of exports.
The current deficit, fell to 1.7% of GDP in 2024, should nevertheless go up slightly to 2-3% in the coming years due to the expected increase in energy imports and consumer goods.
Reminder of previous ratings
In August 2023, R&I had lowered the note from Tunisia from B to B- by maintaining a “negative” perspective, due to a fragile budgetary and external situation and uncertainties on the sanitation of public finances.
The decision of August 2025 therefore marks a change of trend, even if the room for maneuver remains limited for public investment and economic recovery.
The Japanese rating rating and investment information agency, Inc. (R & I) is a private financial assessment company that provides credit ratings for businesses and governments. This agency, created in 1990 and based in Tokyo, is an important actress on the Japanese rating market and is internationally recognized.
