The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, an American think tank specializing in the Middle East, recently published a detailed analysis of the political and social situation in Tunisia but also on the country’s prospects. The report highlights rising internal tensions, social protests and critical economic issues, while suggesting avenues of action for the international community, particularly the United States.
According to the institute, nearly 5,000 protest movements have been recorded since the start of 2025, an increase of 84% compared to the previous year. These mobilizations reflect growing discontent linked to economic difficulties, environmental problems and restrictions on civil liberties.
Large-scale demonstrations took place in Gabès, where the population protested against the pollution caused by the local chemical complex and demanded the closure or rehabilitation of the phosphate factory. These movements were punctuated by clashes with the police, highlighting the sensitive nature of environmental issues in a region historically dependent on the chemical industry for employment and the local economy, according to this report.
Political protest and judicial restrictions
“The capital is not to be outdone: recurring demonstrations since November have been motivated by mass arrests in the context of the so-called “conspiracy against the state” affair. Forty political and opposition figures were given heavy sentences, sparking criticism from human rights organizations and heightening tensions with civil society,” the report said.
The report emphasizes that, despite these mobilizations, a fall of the regime remains unlikely. The dominant feeling among Tunisians is rather one of generalized disenchantment, with part of the population considering emigration as a solution, which entails a risk of skills drain.
For the Washington Institute, economic stability remains the crucial point. Tunisia has significant assets: proximity to Europe, a young and dynamic workforce, potential in agro-industry and strategic infrastructure. However, these benefits risk being lost if the political climate does not improve and structural reforms are delayed.
American experts suggest targeted and inexpensive measures to support the country, such as:
- the reduction of customs duties on certain Tunisian exports,
- support for less politicized commercial projects,
- encouraging vital infrastructure and high value-added sectors.
They also insist on the need to support Tunisians’ vision for a more prosperous future, recalling past initiatives such as the “Tunisian American Enterprise Fund” or the “Millennium Challenge Agreement” under the Obama administration, which had strengthened citizen confidence in reforms.
Take with caution
The report provides insightful reading but should be read with caution. His perspective reflects an American strategic approach, sometimes focused on the geopolitical and economic interests of the United States. Tunisian observers may note that certain recommendations, such as the suspension of customs duties or support for targeted projects, do not always take into account local budgetary constraints, internal social dynamics and governance issues.
Because it should also be remembered that this institute regularly publishes reports on Tunisia. At the end of 2023, he explained that Washington could improve its image in Tunisia by defending human rights and concretely supporting a receptive Tunisian public. After the events of July 25, it was claimed that these developments would have repercussions on American policy towards Tunisia.
Tunisia is going through a complex phase, marked by growing social protest and a tense political context. The Washington Institute report reiterates the importance of structural reforms and open dialogue with civil society, while highlighting the opportunities that the country can still seize to strengthen its economic and social resilience.
