The waters of the Gulf of Oman rustle with a new military alliance: Iran, Russia and China launched their fifth common naval maneuvers. Far from being a simple routine exercise, these operations reflect the bitter failure of the Trumpist foreign policy, oscillating between brutal threats and lame negotiations. Donald Trump, faithful to his habit, tries to hide this reality by shattering statements, threatening in turn of military intervention or a resumption of negotiations.
But who can still believe in its strategic coherence? In 2018, he energized the Iranian nuclear agreement, insulating Washington of his allies and strengthening Tehran in his posture of distrust. Today, he evokes the need for a new agreement, while maintaining a climate of confrontation which leaves no room for compromise. Between the carrot and the stick, Trump alternates without a clear strategy, transforming American diplomacy into a theater of permanent improvisation.
Far from folding under American sanctions, Iran has bounced back, consolidating its alliances with Moscow and Beijing. These exercises, observed by a dozen countries including Arab neighbors, illustrate an alarming geostrategic turn. Russia and China, formerly cautious in the region, now project their power there, responding to the growing isolation of Iran under American sanctions.
Worse, the permanent turnaround of the Trump administration – military threats (“two options: the attack or a deal”) juxtaposed to calls for dialogue – has undermined any diplomatic credibility. Khamenei sums it up with cynicism: “Negotiations only aim to impose new requirements. Result: Iran, although not nuclearized, now plays regional spoilsports, Houthi drones in the Red Sea at exercises with Moscow.
In this chaos, Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy turns into a destabilization accelerator. While the Houthis threaten to resume their attacks, the United States multiplies patrols in the Red Sea, fueling the militarist spiral. The Middle East, hostage of power calculations, pays the price of an erratic American diplomacy.
Trump, believing in isolate Tehran, unintentionally forged an anti-Western axis. A cruel paradox for a president who promised “the America First”, but whose inheritance risks being a world where autocracies dictate their law.
