Donald Trump reopened the protectionism front. On Saturday, he signed a series of decrees establishing customs taxes of 25% on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. The exemption from minimis, which allowed American consumers to receive detixed parcels up to 800 dollars, is also removed. According to Bloomberg, $ 1300 billion in exchanges are affected, an unprecedented shock.
Canada immediately retaliated, announcing from $ 155 billion from US dollars, including Tesla cars. The European Union fears a contagion and is concerned about the repercussions on its own economy. Because this trade war could slow global growth and weigh on demand for manufactured goods.
Can Tunisia transform the threat into an opportunity?
For Tunisia, which is highly dependent on the European market, the indirect impact could be painful. A drop in consumption in Europe would reduce demand for Tunisian textiles and food industry, while the increase in costs of Chinese imports could accentuate local inflation.
However, this crisis could also be an opportunity. Already penalized by the rise in American taxes, many manufacturers will seek alternatives to China and Mexico. Tunisia could take advantage of this reconfiguration of supply chains, especially in textiles, electronics and industrial assembly. With its proximity to Europe and its privileged access to the European market via the EU-Tunisia Association Agreement, it has assets to assert.
The assets to assert Tunisia
Other countries have been able to take advantage of such trade tensions in the past. In 2018, during the trade war between Trump and Beijing, Vietnam had captured part of China’s relocated investments, becoming a key player in world production. In 2002, when Washington imposed customs duties on European steel, Turkey and India increased their exports to neglected markets.
But to transform the test, Tunisia will have to improve its business climate and attract investors seeking production relays outside the areas struck by American surcharge. The state will also have to activate its economic diplomacy, especially with Canada, which could diversify its suppliers in the face of the barriers erected by its American neighbor.
Trump’s trade war is a threat to the global economy. But for Tunisia, she could also be a chance provided that she prepares for it.
