One day the 2025 Oscar ceremony, the excitement is at its height. Like every year, the forecasts are righteous and everyone goes with their preferences and their bets. Having carefully followed the various reward festivals and ceremonies preceding the Oscars, I was able to observe the trends and see which films and performers have marked the season. But beyond statistics and probabilities, these are also personal tastes. Here is my opinion on this edition, the films and performances which, in my eyes, deserve to win.
Best film: The substancethe evidence
If I had to choose a single film to reward this year, it would be without hesitation The substance of Coralie Fargeat. This film stands out largely from the others by its originality, its scriptwriting audacity and its controlled staging. Its subject – a fascinating reflection on identity and the quest for perfection – is treated with a visual and narrative power that deeply marked me. In addition, the masterful interpretation of Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley gives the whole a rare intensity.
Presented in preview at the Cannes Film Festival, where he won the prize for the best scenario,, The substance then confirmed his status by winning several distinctions, including a Golden Globe for Demi Moore. He is appointed to the Oscars in five categories, including Best movie, best actress and best director. For me, he should logically leave with several statuettes as he dominates the competition by his singularity and his strength.
Another film that I place in very high esteem is I’m still here by Walter Salles. This Brazilian film is a sensitive and subtle work that explores deep themes with remarkable elegance. He is also in the running for the Oscar for the best international film, which could paradoxically reduce his chances in the main category. Indeed, the Academy often tends to reward a film in “best international film” rather than “best film”, in order to avoid a double victory. Few exceptions like Parasitewho was able to break this logic. Thus, despite its immense qualities, I’m still here could see its recognition limited to the international category.
However, it is very likely that the Academy is rather rewarding Anora from Sean Baker or Emilia Pérez by Jacques Audiard. AnoraWho won the Palme d’Or in Cannesknew how to convince a large part of the criticism and benefits from a favorable impulse. As of Emilia Pérez,, with its 13 Oscar nominations,, He won several prices during American ceremonies and could well win despite the fact that I do not share the general enthusiasm around this film.
Best international film: an unbalanced competition
If the Academy judged only the film quality, the Oscar for best international film should return, in my opinion, The seeds of the wild fig by Mohammad Rasoulof. This film, Directed by an Iranian filmmaker Exiled in Germany, is a powerful work, of great narrative and visual mastery. He has already marked the Cannes Film Festival By receiving a special jury prize and several other distinctions in parallel sections, such as the Fipresci price.
But the trends observed in previous ceremonies show that Emilia Pérez is the favorite of this category, winning almost all prices in the United States. If this film is about to be crowned, it is not for reasons that convince me personally, and I remain convinced that The seeds of the wild fig would have been a much more deserving choice.
Best actor: a tight confrontation
This year, two actors particularly caught my attention:
- Ralph Fiennes In Conclavewhich delivers an interpretation in subtlety, full of tension and depth.
- Sebastian Stan In The Apprenticewhere he embodies a young Donald Trump with an impressive transformation.
These two performances are, in my opinion, the most striking, but everything suggests that the Oscar will go to Adrien Brody for The brutalist. His game is solid, but he recalls his role a lot in The pianistwhich gives the impression of a repetition.
Best actress: Demi Moore or Fernanda Torres?
The competition for the best actress is played out, in my eyes, between Half moore for The substance and Fernanda Torres for I’m still here. Demi Moore delivers an intense and visceral performance, while Fernanda Torres offers a performance of great accuracy and carries the film on his shoulders. They both deserve this reward.
However, several trends indicate that Karla Sofía Gascón for Emilia Pérez could be the winnera choice that I absolutely do not share, both for artistic reasons and for controversies surrounding some of his racist statements. For me, neither his game nor his journey justify such a distinction.
Best male support: an uncertain race
For the Oscar for best actor in a supporting role, several performances deserve to be mentioned. Yura Borisov for Anora And Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice both delivered remarkable performances, bringing an additional depth to the films in which they play. However, it seems that the Academy could be oriented towards Kieran Culkin for A Real Paina choice following the dynamics of other awards, even if other performers could have deserved this distinction more.
Best supporting female role: a regrettable absence
If there is indeed an appointment which seems to me completely unfair by its absence, it is that of Margaret Qualley for The substance as a second role. Its interpretation is memorable and would have largely deserved a place in this category.
Among the names, Ariana Grande for Wicked seems to be one of the most convincing. But it is likely that Zoe Saldaña wins the Oscar for Emilia Pérezwhich, once again, does not seem to me to be the most relevant choice.
A probable list, but not always deserved
Through this edition of the Oscars, I see again how the trends and lobbying campaigns influence the results. My favorites are The substance,, I’m still here And The seeds of the wild figbut the awards should, in all probability, go to films and performers that I do not necessarily consider to be the most deserving.
Of course, everything is still possible until the ceremony. Perhaps the Academy will be able to create surprise by crowning truly striking works, rather than following an already well-established consensus. Go to tomorrow evening to see if my forecasts are confirmed … or if the academy surprises us!
Below is the list of appointments, with my personal and underlined choices in bold, those which could probably win. It should be noted that, in the most important categories, I classified films and actors according to my preferences:
Best movie
- The substance
- I’m still here
- Conclave
- Anora
- Wicked
- A Complete Unknown
- Emilia Pérez
- Nickel Boys
- The brutalist
- Dune: Two share
Best actor
- Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
- Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
- Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
- Adrien Brody, The brutalist
Best actress
- Half Moore, The substance
- Fernanda Torres, I’m still here
- Mikey Madison, Anora
- Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
- Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Best director
- Coralie Fargeat, The substance
- Sean Baker, Anora
- James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
- Jacques AudiardEmilia Pérez
- Brady Corbet, The brutalist
Best actor in a supporting role
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
- Yura Borisov, Anora
- Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
- Guy Pearce, The brutalist
Best actress in a supporting role
- Ariana Grande, Wicked
- Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
- Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
- Felicity Jones, The brutalist
Best suitable scenario
- Conclave
- A Complete Unknown
- Emilia Pérez
- Nickel Boys
- Sing Sing
Best original scenario
- The substance
- Anora
- September 5
- A Real Pain
- The brutalist
Best original song
- El Mal – Emilia Pérez
- The Journey – The Six Triple Eight
- Like A Bird – Sing Sing
- Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez
- Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late
Best original soundtrack
- The Wild Robot
- Wicked
- Emilia Pérez
- Conclave
- The brutalist
Best international film
Best animated film
- The Wild Robot
- Flow
- Wallace & Gromit: revenge Most Fowl
- Inside out 2
- Memoir of a snail
Best documentary film (I have not seen any of these films)
- Black Box Diaries
- No Other Land
- Porcelain War
- Soundtrack to coup d’etat
- Sugarcane
Best costumes
- Wicked
- Conclave
- Gladiator II
- A Complete Unknown
- Nosferatu
Best make -ups and hairstyles
- The substance
- Wicked
- A different man
- Emilia Pérez
- Nosferatu
Best decor
- Wicked
- Conclave
- Dune: Two share
- Nosferatu
- The brutalist
Best sound
- The Wild Robot
- Wicked
- Emilia Perez
- A Complete Unknown
- Dune: Two share
Best editing
- Wicked
- Anora
- Conclave
- The brutalist
- Emilia Pérez
Best photograph
- Nosferatu
- The brutalist
- Dune: Two share
- Emilia Pérez
- Maria
Best special effects
- Wicked
- Alien: Romulus
- Better man
- Dune: Two share
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Best short film (I have not seen any of these films)
- A link
- Anuja
- I’m not a robot
- The Last Ranger
- The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Best animated short film (I have not seen any of these films)
- Beautiful men
- In the Shadow of Cypress
- Magic Candies
- Wander to Wonder
- Yuck!
Best documentary short film (I have not seen any of these films)
- Death by Numbers
- I am ready, warden
- Incident
- Instruments of A Beating Heart
- The Only Girl in the Orchestra
See you on March 2!
