The World Bank forecasts that Tunisia’s current account deficit will reach 2.7% of GDP in 2025, driven by a widening trade deficit. This deterioration would be partly mitigated by the increase in tourism receipts and the fall in international oil prices.
Moderate recovery but high financial needs
In the medium term, the external deficit is expected to continue to widen to reach 3.1% of GDP in 2027, in a context of limited access to external financing. The authorities may have to resort more to foreign currency borrowing to cover needs.
The economy is, however, showing signs of recovery, with real GDP growth of 2.4% over the first nine months of 2025, supported by agriculture, construction and tourism. Inflation continues to fall to 4.9% in October 2025, while FDI increases by 41%, particularly in renewable energy projects.
Public finances: a declining deficit but financing under pressure
In terms of public finances, the budget deficit should stand at 5.7% of GDP in 2025, before falling to 4.4% in 2027, thanks to progressive control of compensation expenditure and the wage bill.
Public debt is expected to decrease slightly, from 84.5% of GDP in 2024 to 83.6% in 2027, but financing needs will remain high.
The World Bank finally emphasizes the need to strengthen social safety nets, emphasizing the central role of the AMEN program, which now covers around 10% of the population, and calling for continued reforms to improve the effectiveness of the social protection system.
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