For the first time since the start of the Russian invasion of 2022, Washington is putting on the table a comprehensive document aimed at stopping the war through a reconfiguration of the balance of power rather than through a military victory. Presented to Volodymyr Zelensky by emissary Dan Driscoll, this 28-point plan places Kyiv before an existential choice: accept painful concessions or continue a war whose military outcome remains uncertain, after nearly five years of attrition.
Major territorial concessions: a peace that validates Russian gains
The project provides for the de facto recognition of three oblasts – Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk – as territories under Russian control. Worse for Kyiv, certain areas of Donetsk still under Ukrainian sovereignty would become a neutral buffer zone, without Russian military presence but outside Ukraine’s effective control. The front would also be frozen in the south, allowing Moscow to retain Mariupol, part of Kherson, and the entire land corridor linking Russia to Crimea. A scenario which would endorse one of Vladimir Putin’s central strategic objectives.
Political neutralization: a Ukraine without NATO but tied to Europe
At the heart of the text, a major demand: Kyiv definitively renounces NATO. Ukraine would have to amend its Constitution to establish this neutrality, while the Alliance would undertake not to deploy troops on its territory. In return, Washington explicitly confirms Kyiv’s right to join the European Union, a balance desired to guarantee economic integration without direct military guarantee.
A capped army and conditional American security
The plan provides for a drastic reduction of Ukrainian forces to 600,000 soldiers – a notable setback for an army which today numbers nearly 880,000. In exchange, the United States offers a security guarantee: if Russia attacks again, Washington promises a “coordinated military response” and the immediate reestablishment of sanctions. But this guarantee expires if Ukraine strikes Russian territory, notably Moscow or Saint Petersburg.
An election in 100 days: accelerating domestic normalization
The document requires general elections to be held within 100 days. A sensitive request, while Kyiv has justified their postponement for two years by the state of military emergency.
Massive reconstruction: 200 billion to rebuild Ukraine
The economic plan calls for a colossal investment: $100 billion in frozen Russian assets directed toward reconstruction; 100 billion additional Europeans; support for the Ukrainian technology, mining and energy sector. The text also provides for a gradual easing of sanctions against Moscow, as well as a joint USA-Russia investment fund once peace is stabilized.
Amnesty, children, Dnipro: the humanitarian and symbolic dimension
The plan calls for the return of all detained civilians, including Ukrainian children transferred to Russia. It also provides for a general amnesty for fighters on both sides, guaranteed access to Ukrainian shipping on the Dnipro, and a central role for the United States in a Peace Council chaired by Donald Trump.
A rehabilitated Russia? The return to the G8 in the text
Last significant point: the reintegration of Russia into the G8, from which it was excluded after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. This return would be conditional on respect for the agreement, but would symbolically mark an international normalization of Vladimir Putin’s regime.
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