The latest statistics from the National Statistics Institute (INS) confirm a silent but deep mutation of Tunisian society. Weddings and births are experiencing a historical decline, while fertility descends largely below the generation renewal threshold, signaling an accelerated aging of the population.
Key figures: a marked decline
- Weddings : 70,942 in 2024 against 78,115 in 2023, a drop from nearly 10 % (more than 8,000 unions less).
- Births : 133,322 in 2024 against 147,242 in 2023, a similar decline in Almost 10 %.
- Fertility : 1.7 children per woman, well below the generation replacement threshold (2.1 children).
- Annual population growth : 0.87 % for the period 2014-2024, the weakest since independence.
These figures, published in the monthly note and confirmed by the General population and housing census 2024reflect a major demographic turning point.
Societal and economic transformations
The decline in weddings and births is part of a context of deep social changes ::
- Wedding age postponement and lengthening the celibacy period.
- Delay in parentinglinked to professional aspirations and mobility.
- Economic pressures : cost of living, housing, stable employment, influencing decisions to have children.
- Evolution of family models : individualization and new personal priorities.
As our previous article pointed out on the Maghreb, “” Wedding in net decline in the Maghreb, an current social upheaval »»Tunisia is no exception to this regional trend, which questions the traditional foundations of the family.
Consequences for Tunisia
This demographic change involves Structural challenges ::
- Accelerated aging of the population and decrease in the number of young workers.
- Labor market pressurewith less new generations to renew skills.
- Weakening of retirement and health systemswhile the proportion of seniors increases.
- Public policies repercussions In education, health and social protection.
Experts alert to the need to active and targeted public policies To balance the structures by age and ensure the sustainability of national systems. Demographers insist on the urgency of Incentive measures to the birth rateof support for young familiesand a Adaptation of economic and social systems to an aging population. Without these measures, Tunisia could enter an irreversible aging cycle, with lasting impacts on its company and its economy.
