Is the drop in oil prices a boon for Tunisia? The recent drop in oil prices on the international market could represent immediate relief for the Tunisian economy, but its long -term effects may be much less favorable. Tunisia could, certainly, draw notable budgetary benefits, but under conditions. This is what two economists estimate.
Short -term relief, a long -term risk for Tunisia
The recent drop in oil prices on the international market could represent immediate relief for the Tunisian economy, but its long -term effects may be much less favorable. This is what the economist Bassem Ennaifer estimated yesterday in a statement to the TAP agency.
He explains that, in the immediate future, this decrease would allow the State to achieve substantial savings – around 162 million dinars according to estimates of the 2025 budget – in particular thanks to the reduction of the energy bill and the appreciation of the dinar against the dollar. However, this dynamic cannot compensate for the negative impacts of a possible global recession, particularly in Europe, the main trading partner of Tunisia.
Ennaifer stresses that the state budget does not only depend on oil prices. The creation of wealth, the performance of companies and tax revenues remain essential pillars, but these could be weakened by a global economy in slowing down. The fall in olive oil exports this year and international trade tensions affecting the Tunisian export industries are already alert signals.
Regarding budgetary prospects, the economist considers that a revision of the 2025 finance law would be premature. He recalls that in Tunisia, amending finance laws are traditionally involved at the end of the year. Current hypotheses, including planned growth of 3.2%, however appear ambitious given the uncertain global context.
Asked about a possible decrease in hydrocarbon prices nationwide, Ennaifer judges that such a decision would be not very appropriate. Despite the drop in prices internationally, the State has not increased the pump prices for two years in order to preserve purchasing power, which has increased its charge in subsidies. Reducing prices now could affect the expected tax revenue from the energy sector, which are estimated at 587 million dinars in 2025. He therefore advocates waiting for stabilization of global prices before modifying the interior price policy.
In short, if the drop in oil represents an immediate budgetary advantage, its medium -term impact could weaken the Tunisian economy, in an increasingly uncertain international context.
A fragile budget
Economist Ridha Chkoundali believes, for its part that Tunisia could derive significant budgetary benefits from this sharp drop in oil prices, but under conditions. This is what he explained in an interview with the TAP agency.
He recalls that the state budget for 2025 was established on a barrel price of the barrel of Brent around 74 dollars. However, if a barrel remains at 65 dollars until the end of the year, this could allow the country to generate a budgetary surplus of up to 1260 million dinars. Each dollar in the barrel represents, according to him, a gain of 140 MD for Tunisian public finances.
However, this advantage remains conditioned on the achievement of the growth rate provided for by the finance law. Chkoundali insists on the importance of maintaining economic activity to allow the State to deal with its obligations, in particular the reimbursement of external debt and the guarantee of strategic imports.
It also alerts that this decrease, although switching to the short term, could have negative consequences on investment in oil exploration. American companies have already announced their intention to slow down their activities if the prices are maintained below 65 dollars, which would call into question the profitability of projects in this sector.
Ridha Chkoundali finally warns that in the event of the continuation of this downward dynamic, combined with aggravation of customs tensions, the world could face a major economic crisis, potentially more severe than that induced by the Pandemic of Cavid-19. A scenario that would necessarily impact Tunisia, despite the apparent budgetary gains.
Recall that after the recent announcement of American customs duties, the oil markets entered a marked bearish phase, losing more than 20% in four days. A brutal fall that brought the prices to their lowest levels since 2021. Yesterday, the barrel of Brent fell from 29 cents (-0.45%) to 64.47 dollars, while the WTI yielded 27 cents (-0.44%) to 61.23 dollars. According to Reuters, the two indices have lost almost $ 10 since the beginning of the month, under the effect of growing concerns around global growth.
