Tunisia’s economic growth should experience a slight improvement between 2025 and 2027, provided that the drought episodes are diminishing, alerts the World Bank (BM) in its Economic Spring Condition Bulletin devoted to the country. However, the institution stresses that the risks weighing on this recovery remain numerous and important.
In its latest regional forecasts published in April, the BM tapped on a growth of 1.9 % for Tunisia in 2025. But this projection remains conditioned by two major factors: a progressive recovery of precipitation and a restart of the manufacturing sector, still in pain.
In this new report entitled “Better connectivity for growth”, the World Bank specifies that the improvement of rains and the rise in the level of the dams should allow agriculture to overcome the heavy losses suffered in 2023. A recovery in the agricultural sector is therefore considered crucial to support global economic activity.
However, other threats weigh on the economic situation: the slowdown in world trade, including the drop in demand in the European Union – the main trading partner of Tunisia – could affect exports, and therefore growth dynamics.
The already weakened manufacturing sector, according to the BM, is expected to show still negative growth in 2025, which would also slow the services, due to sectoral interdependencies.
In the medium term, Tunisian growth should stabilize around 1.6 to 1.7 % between 2026 and 2027, estimates the World Bank. But this trajectory remains subject to significant risks: climatic uncertainties, volatility of international trade and difficulties in access to external financing could hinder recovery.
In particular, the insufficiency of funding in foreign currency is likely to strengthen tensions on the exchange rate and prices, with a negative impact on the real economy and employment.
To reverse this fragile trend, the World Bank calls on the Tunisian authorities to undertake structural reforms without delay. Among the priorities: strengthening budgetary discipline, modernization of public enterprises and promoting a more competitive environment.
