In our previous editorial, we predicted and expressed doubts about a rapid end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. And that Goliath cannot completely devour David!
We also prognosticated – thanks to our training in strategy followed within the Grande Ecole Militaire de Brussels (ERM) – which we will soon attend an exhausting war for the two states that have become overnight from irreducible enemies.
So more than twenty days ago than atrocious battles enthroned with deadly bombing on the capital kyiv, and the major cities of the country! A predictable bother in which actively participate on the one hand the satellitaries of Chechen Muslim Allies, associated with about fifteen thousands of guerrillas recently landed in Syria, Bashar being a large and faithful friend of Putin.
All in arms on the side of the old USSR. And on the other side, many volunteers from all sides from European countries. They rushed there to constitute brigades of volunteers in order to relieve, a little bit, the young and experienced Zelensky.
This is obviously a question of trying to reconstruct the type of volunteer units who have sought in the past to block the road to the advent of a Franco in Spain as terrifying as dictator like an irreducible Stalin that he admired.
As for the various attempts to calm the game between the two belligerent-up to the belligerent lobs run everywhere, including Turkish Erdogan-whose country is part of NATO-as well as the various intergovernmental talks, held on the Russian-Ukrainian border, all, unfortunately, only obtained thin, even very thin advanced.
Because Ukraine – although disappointed with the absence of even more massive and effective military aid, however promised, or even a direct intervention by the forces of the Atlantic Alliance, an organization to which Zelensky dreams of seeing his country appear there as a full -fledged member – this small country is always moderately well! This, despite more than three million refugees.
And, also, thanks to the routing (Wednesday March 9 for example), its units of very large stocks of sophisticated weapons including 17 thousand assault anti -tank missiles and 3,700 anti -aircraft missiles. The latter are generally drawn thanks to launchers worn on the shoulders, allowing very effective resistance against armored vehicles and Russian helicopters.
It is moreover, among other things, this type of weapon so perfected which allowed the formidable Afghans, in 2008, to beat these same Russians, (falling under the USSR at the time) having in the occupied past this Muslim country.
Add to this the arrangement of Ukrainians of a potential for Turkish drones of the “Lowcost” type, in this case “Bayraktrars TB 2” which are very effective against armored vehicles and also cause significant damage to the ground troops, especially since the aviation of the Ukrainian army was completely destroyed from the first day of the invasion.
This one took place completely by surprise that Moscow having claimed to continue simple maneuvers in collaboration with some of his allies, former satellite of Moscow, all cross-border workers of Ukraine, including particularly Belarus from which the Russian army has undertaken to attack, by surprise, this country.
And that was, obviously, one of Putin’s morbid tricks, although military art specifically provides this stratagem. And the ancient world history – and not even very distant – abounds such cases, both during the wars of the Muslim conquests and from those carried out by Carthage of the illustrious Hannibal. Or the one who drove Stalin by his own ally, Hitler, during the Second World War.
However, today, we see that the Russian army is starting to trample and not to progress as quickly as expected and as planned by the Moscovite staff. And that, despite its arsenal of frightening weapons.
First of all, there was bad weather. This is currently the start of the end of winter with a maximum thaw in all areas. This one, mixed with the earth, gives an amalgam easy to cause the boggle of all the vehicles carrying troops, even the tanks too, these crops with caterpillars.
It is a bit like the scenario that Napoleon Bonaparte knew during his invasion of Russia – and its lamentable tragedy during the passage of its Berezina units – or that of the German armies under the Führer … The cold and the frost of the material at the time ended up coming to the end of so many Nazi units.
The bad choice of dates of any warlike offensive can, in turn, are also confusing. And in more ways than one. Let’s not forget that a good timing is the key to victory!
In addition, there is a blatant lack of maintenance of heavy weapons, tanks, cannons and armored carriers, on the Russian side. And this, obviously, since the end of the fighting against Georgia in 2008. Which already explains their frequent breakdowns.
Add to this the great resistance observed in Ukrainians whose recall of reservists, including experienced elements to which anti-Russian combatants have joined, highly experienced, rushed everywhere, both those relating to the former countries colonized by the Kremlin, as well as different regions of Europe.
Suddenly, all these unforeseen hazards, it seems, have contributed to slowing down the expected advances of the conquerors who roll or walk on highly mined land. In addition to the glorious resistance that they permanently encounter.
Admittedly, Putin has the means of his policy – Russia being the second military power around the world – however “Nature Lady” does not seem to have placed itself completely on its side. At least, for a while yet …
Nevertheless, it is always adamant and straight in his boots, because he fears that in the event of renouncing reasoning the intrepid Zelensky, all the neighboring states, falling under the former Soviet empire, who will follow, by contagion, his “bad” example, namely, to be an integral part of NATO. Something he will never admit to seeing atomic bases in his borders in his borders from Uncle Sam, among others.
In addition, soon, it may be that the strong man of the Kremlin, and so inflexible, would experience a significant risk that he is still making accounts to his own public opinion. This will not admit a long and exhausting war. And that, it is well known, having been seen brilliantly in other cases, as for example during the Vietnam War!
Note also that since this sinister February 18, 2022, the days have followed, carrying with them the horrors of an unbearable war for a small people as courageous as laborious and technologically at the forefront of progress, in addition to being the attic and Europe and Africa (instead of Naguère’s Tunisia).
In addition, we also witness a proliferation of press releases of sneaky propaganda as well as multiple diplomatic ballets, including ministerial meetings between the two belligerents. But all this effervescence remains without follow -up …
This is how in view of all the aforementioned vagaries, we are as a place to wonder if Putin-while sanctions of all kinds, including economic and financial and financial rainy indefinitely on the Kremlin, in order to make this immense state isolate-should he not undertake to revise his copy soon? He who is known to be irreducible.
And especially taking advantage of the fact that the different Western states are not all on the same wavelength because of these sanctions considered to be double -edged, all the more since there is a possible risk of seeing them end up in periods of disputes between them.
The fact remains that his aggressive behavior risks leading the world as a whole in a poor economic situation, including Europe. And particularly our continent, Africa, long since badly left!
Should we recall, here, that it is the component countries our continent the least socially and financially supplied which risk the first to suffer and more seriously than the others?
Some even dare to argue that, for lack of Ukrainian wheat, there is a great danger-by the fault of the West led by Biden first having committed faults, or even the irreparable towards Putin-to see the famine emerge all over the world especially as it is still struggling in the fray and confronted with the terrifying epidemic that is the COVVI-19. Has it not already confused the world as a whole?
M’hamed Ben Youssef
Tunis-Hebdo of 03/14/2022
