The fall of Bashar al-Assad resonates as the last echo of the Arab Spring, but the time is no longer for the naive euphoria of 2011. From Rabat to Baghdad, the Arab world hosts this event with a mixture of relief and apprehension, shaped by thirteen years of regional disillusionment.
The assessment of the Arab revolutions draws a map of the pitfalls to avoid. Egypt has seen its democratic dream broke by the return of the military. Tunisia, after being considered the model of a successful revolution, is experiencing a reorientation of its governance under the chairmanship of Kais Saied. Even more dramatic, Libya and Yemen collapsed in endless civil wars, their fragmented territories between rival militias.
Syria is already carrying the germs of these tragic destinies: Islamist, Kurds and Pro-Turques forces are competing for the heritage of Assad, while the regional powers-Iran, Turkey, Gulf country-stir up conflict embers. The shadow of the old security apparatus is still hovering, recalling how power networks have been able to reinvent themselves elsewhere.
However, the very length of the Syrian conflict could paradoxically be its asset. Civil society, forged by thirteen years of war, addresses this transition without illusions. This lucidity, born from the lessons of the past, perhaps becomes the best bulwark against the drifts observed in its neighbors. Will Syria, the last heiress of the Arab Spring, can transform its scars into wisdom?
