On April 6, a declaration by Donald Trump, taken on the spot, sowed confusion in diplomatic circles: the United States and Iran would be ready to start direct talks on the Tehran nuclear program. But this announcement, as thunderous as it is, hides a more complex reality, a diplomatic dance where the roles are carefully defined, and the intentions much less clear.
Trump has chosen to play the emergency card, warning that a failure of negotiations would lead to a “great danger” for Iran. A warrior rhetoric which, without surprise, found an answer in the corridors of power in Tehran. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araqchi, quickly took care to specify that the discussions would not be direct, but well mediated by the Sultanate of Oman. Thus, American diplomacy, as usual, comes up against the armor of Iranian prudence, which favors an indirect approach, not wanting to be isolated in a negotiation where the balance of powers clearly leans in favor of Washington.
The choice of Oman, whose role of intermediary is well known, is not trivial. This country, faithful to calculated neutrality, becomes the point of anchor of talks which, in reality, could be only a diplomatic theater to save time. This new series of negotiations, which Trump described as a “very high level”, seems more of a communication exercise than a real hope of a concrete solution. Because, beyond public declarations, the failure of the previous attempts to bring together the two powers is still in the spirits.
The United States, through its sanctions, has succeeded in constraining Iran in a defensive position, but also in weakening the influence of the latter in its own region. And yet Iran does not allow itself to be intimidated. With an enrichment of uranium far beyond the limits imposed by the Vienna agreement of 2015, the country of Khamenei manages to maintain constant pressure on the West, while keeping the hope of a strategic reversal. But has this strategy not become counterproductive? Is it really a “test” for America, as Araqchi proclaims, or a final attempt to stay on the international scene before a conflict became inevitable?
