Prices of oil are continuing their withdrawal on Tuesday, carried by the relative lull in tensions between Iran and the United States. The Iranian response to recent American strikes, deemed symbolic, seems to have removed the spectrum from a closure of the Strait of Ormuz, a strategic passage for the world’s crude supply.
On Monday, Iran fired missiles at the American military base of Al-Uudeid, Qatar-the most important in the Middle East-in retaliation for the American strikes carried out this weekend against three Iranian nuclear sites. However, this attack did not cause injured or human losses, according to the American authorities.
US President Donald Trump described this response as “very weak” and even thanked Tehran for warning Washington “in time”, making it possible to avoid any victim. A reaction that has helped to relax the markets.
“Iranian strikes were more symbolic than destructive,” explains Ole Hvalbye, analyst at Seb. A reading shared by Jorge Leon, by Rystad Energy: “The risk of closing the Strait of Ormuz has significantly decreased, the tensions having appeased. »»
Each day, around 20 million barrels of oil – or almost 20 % of world trade – transit by this strait, considered as one of the neuralgic points of the energy market.
At 09:20 GMT, the Brent of the North Sea barrel, for delivery in August, dropped by 3.30 %, to $ 69.12. The American WTI, for the same deadline, lost 3.28 %, at 66.26 dollars.
Despite Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire accepted by both parties-confirmed by Israel-, the Israeli Defense Minister quickly declared that he had ordered a response to what he considers a “violation” of the agreement by Iran. A vagueness therefore persists on the rest of the events.
In the meantime, the geopolitical risk premium, which had fueled the price increase since the first Israeli strike against Iran two weeks ago, has “completely evaporated”, notes Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Energy.
For analysts, a total blocking of the Strait of Ormuz remains improbable. Two strategic pipelines – one in Saudi Arabia, the other in the United Arab Emirates – already make it possible to divert around 6.5 million barrels per day from this sea route, according to Sumit Ritolia, analyst at KPLER.
